Calculating CO2 Emissions and the Carbon Cost per Passenger for Flights
9 June 2026
When taking a short three-hour flight, we don’t think much of the carbon emissions this produces. However, when the fuel burn is broken down per passenger, the carbon impact becomes clearer.
The resulting figure depends on various factors including the aircraft type and size, number of passengers and flight time, among others. With these in mind, an estimate can be made using published aircraft fuel burn data.
Factors Used for the CO2 Impact Calculation
For this example, a typical narrow-body aircraft is assumed, such as an Airbus A320 or Boeing 737, which are commonly used on short to medium-haul routes. Also, in this case the aircraft is assumed to be 90% full.
EUROCONTROL’s Standard Inputs for Economic Analyses gives an average en-route fuel burn of 40.1 kg per minute for a narrow-body aircraft. For the CO₂ conversion, EUROCONTROL notes that ICAO uses a factor of 3.16 kg of CO₂ per kg of Jet A fuel in aviation emissions calculations.
Note: The calculation below is for direct combustion CO₂ only. Therefore, it does not include contrails, non-CO₂ climate effects, airport operations, fuel production, ground handling or passenger travel to and from the airport. Direct CO₂ is the main figure used in many carbon accounting methods because it is measurable and can be linked directly to fuel burn.
| Item | Assumption |
| Aircraft type | Narrow-body aircraft |
| Example aircraft | Airbus A320 / Boeing 737 type aircraft |
| Seats assumed | 180 |
| Occupancy assumed | 90% |
| Passengers on board | 162 |
| Flight time | 3 hours / 180 minutes |
| En-route fuel burn | 40.1 kg/min |
| CO2 conversion factor | 3.16 kg CO2 per kg jet fuel |
How Much CO2 Is Produced Per Passenger?
Using the assumptions above, the direct CO2 figure comes to about 141 kg CO2 per passenger for a three-hour flight at 90% occupancy.
| Step | Calculation | Result |
| Passengers on board | 180 seats × 90% | 162 passengers |
| Fuel used over 3 hours | 40.1 kg/min × 180 min | 7,218 kg fuel |
| Total direct CO2 | 7,218 kg fuel × 3.16 | 22,808.88 kg CO2 |
| CO2 per passenger | 22,808.88 kg CO2 ÷ 162 | 140.8 kg CO2 |
| Rounded result | ≈ 141 kg CO2 per passenger |
This means each passenger’s share of the direct fuel combustion emissions is about 0.141 tonnes of CO₂.
The Effect of Plane Occupancy on CO2 Emissions
A flight does not burn fuel in direct proportion to the number of passengers. The aircraft, fuel, crew, cargo and flight route all affect the total fuel burn. However, a fuller aircraft spreads that fuel burn across more passengers. In this example, 90% occupancy is an efficient load factor. If the aircraft were only half full, the emissions per passenger would be higher because the same aircraft would still need to complete the route with fewer passengers sharing the fuel burn. That said, higher occupancy does not remove the emissions. It only reduces the share allocated to each passenger.
What Would it Cost to Account for the CO₂ from Flights?
There is a large difference between paying a compliance-style carbon price and paying for durable carbon removal with permanent storage.
A compliance-style price can be linked to the EU carbon market. The European Commission’s CBAM certificate price for Q1 2026 was €75.36/t CO₂e. Reuters also reported that analysts expected EU allowances to average €80.61/t in 2026, based on a survey of 10 analysts. [Reuters EU carbon price forecast]
However, if the aim is durable carbon removal, such as Direct Air Capture with permanent geological storage, the price can be much higher. A value around €800/t CO₂ should be treated as a durable removal scenario.
| Carbon Value Used | What it Represents | Approx. Cost per Passenger |
| €75.36/t CO2 | Q1 2026 CBAM certificate price | €10.61 |
| €78.23/t CO2 | EU ETS (As at 9 June 2026) | €11.03 |
| €80.61/t CO2 | Reuters 2026 EU analyst forecast | €11.35 |
| €800/t CO2 | Durable permanent storage of CO₂ using DACCS | €112.80 |
The difference is clear. At an EU carbon market-style value, the cost of the passenger’s direct CO₂ is around €11. At €800/t CO₂, the cost rises to about €113 per passenger.
This shows why the chosen carbon price is relevant. A low compliance price and a high durable removal price are not measuring the same thing.
Aviation is a Hard-to-Abate Industry
Aviation is hard to decarbonise because aircraft need energy-dense fuels. It is difficult to electrify, and while battery-electric aircraft may be useful for some short routes in the future, liquid fuels are still expected to be needed for most medium and long-haul aviation.
That is why carbon removal and carbon utilisation are important to decarbonise aviation. Direct Air Capture can remove CO₂ directly from the air for permanent storage, and it can also supply captured CO₂ for synthetic fuels such as eSAF. (For more details: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (eSAF)).
Conclusion
The key point is that direct flight emissions can be estimated from fuel burn but the harder question is how society chooses to account for them (See: EU ETS Review: International Aviation, DAC and eSAF Move into Focus). A low carbon price may reflect a market compliance cost, while durable removal reflects the physical cost of removing and storing CO₂.
Summary
Using EUROCONTROL fuel burn data and the ICAO jet fuel conversion factor, a typical three-hour narrow-body flight at 90% occupancy produces about 141 kg of direct CO₂ per passenger.
At a carbon price close to €80/t CO₂, that equals roughly €11 per passenger. However, if the emissions are addressed through durable carbon removal at €800/t CO₂, the cost rises to about €113 per passenger.
This difference highlights why transparent carbon accounting is valuable. Flying has a clear direct CO₂ impact, and non-CO₂ effects can add further warming. Furthermore, aviation needs carbon reduction, sustainable fuels and durable CO₂ removal to deal with its emission.