With Direct Air Capture, We Can Reach Ireland’s CO₂ Emission Targets and Avoid €26 billion in Penalties

By: Ray Naughton, Founder & MD of NEG8 Carbon

According to the Environment Protection Agency, Ireland will not meet its greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets by the 2030 deadline.

Failure to meet these targets* will leave Ireland open to billions of euros in fines, initially estimated by the Climate Change Advisory Council to be around €8 billion by 2030.

“However, these estimates assume Ireland follows through on measures that it looks increasingly unlikely to implement.” (Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Assessment Report, December 2024)

Penalties Could be as Much as €26 billion

In a joint report from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (IFAC) and Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC), the warning is sounded to the Irish government to act urgently or it will undoubtably face a bill of between €8 billion and €26 billion.

Furthermore, this €26 billion will not be a once-off payment to compensate for emissions but will be accumulative as Ireland continues to miss its targets.

To clarify, the “fines or penalties” involve the purchasing of emissions allowances from other EU states that have surpassed their targets. It is unknown how much the final amount for buying allowances will be as many countries will be vying for these credits which will bring up the price (hence the wide range of between €8-26 billion).

Another sobering fact is that Ireland has the highest emissions gap per capita of the EU countries at 8.7 tonnes of CO₂ per person.

The DAC Solution

Instead of wasting these billions of euros on fines for failing to achieve national emissions targets, Ireland should pro-actively invest in carbon removal technologies such as Direct Air Capture (DAC).

DAC involves the capture of CO₂ from the atmosphere, which is then either sequestered underground or in disused oil and gas wells or utilized in other processes. (For more, see How Does Direct Air Capture Work)

Advantages of Direct Air Capture

Can be located anywhere; not limited to source of emissions
Can use off-grid renewable energy
DAC is measurable and verifiable for carbon credits/offsets
Long term to permanent carbon storage

(For more: Advantages of Direct Air Capture to Reach Net Zero)

Tackling Ireland’s Emissions

Ireland emits approximately 38 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. Of these, around 8.5 million tonnes are from hard-to-abate sources such as heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and shipping (6 million tonnes), cement and lime production (2 million tonnes), and waste incineration (0.5 million tonnes).

To meet the emissions goals, it’s becoming clear that Ireland will need to rely on innovative carbon capture solutions like Direct Air Capture technology. Don MacElroy, Technology Director at NEG8 Carbon said:

“The emissions target may be partially achieved by afforestation or wetland development and other bio-based methods but the carbon capture targets would be better served by rapid development of man-made technology such as DAC.”

This is where DAC parks step into the spotlight.

DAC Parks in Ireland

To achieve Ireland’s CO₂ reduction targets, the country should establish a local manufacturing facility to produce DAC systems.

Size of DAC Park Needed to Address the €26 billion

DAC can take care of the circa 8 million tonnes of CO₂ per annum that reduction efforts aren’t covering.

Using NEG8 Carbon’s DAC technology, you would need:

1333 DAC towers each capturing 6000 tonnes per annum
The total land area required: 2.4 km x 2.4 km (half the area of Dublin Airport)

This would be grouped into DAC parks of 12 towers each, with each park covering 5 hectares.

Comparing it to forestation, Prof. MacElroy said:

“If this were done using forestation, it would require 800,000 hectares (8000 km²) to capture the 8 million tonnes of CO₂. The Afforestation Scheme (referenced in 2024) proposed by the Irish Government is to plant 8000 hectares per year, subject to funding and land, to reach 18% forest cover from 11% today. This means ultimately planting a total of 600,000 hectares which will take 75 years. Therefore, to capture 8 Mtonnes of CO₂ would actually take 100 years using this forestation scheme.”

Cost Estimates

CAPEX cost: €70-€80 per tonne over 20 years
OPEX cost €165 per tonne CO₂ captured: €1.32 billion per year for 8 million tonnes
Storage cost €30 per tonne CO₂: €240 million for 8 million tonnes

Feasibility of Carbon Storage in Ireland

However, the next question is where to store the captured CO₂?

Storage in Depleted Gas Fields

Although subterranean storage of CO₂ is currently not permitted in Ireland, this could possibly change in the future.

THE CORRIB GAS FIELD is located about 80km off the northwest coast of Mayo. It has a provisional estimate of 44 mega tonnes (Mt) of CO₂ storage capacity and the field is due to run out in 2030-2035 (production peaked in 2020). The project has a natural gas pipeline in place which is about 90km in length, running from the Corrib field to the landfall at Glengad which can be repurposed to transport the captured CO₂ to the storage site.

THE DEPLETED KINSALE HEAD GAS FIELD is also an option with a potential CO₂ storage capacity of 321 Mt. However, the pipelines and other infrastructure have deteriorated at this site and as such may not be suitable for use. Additionally, the condition and the pressure of the reservoir need to be determined.

Although, in a paper by J.M English & K.L. English (Overview of Hydrogen and Geostorage Potential in Ireland) it was noted that “one small compartment of the Kinsale Head complex, the SW Kinsale gas field (O’Sullivan, 2001), was previously utilised for natural gas storage within the Bream Sandstone Member between 2001 and 2017” which in effect proves the concept that gas can be reinjected into this reservoir which acts as a sealed container.

Geological Mineralisation in Northern Ireland Basalt Rock

When liquid CO₂ is injected into basalt rock a natural mineralisation process occurs where the CO₂ reacts with the magnesium and calcium minerals in the basalt to form stable carbonates. This process effectively turns the CO₂ into a solid, securely storing it permanently underground. Once the CO₂has been mineralised, no further monitoring is required.

Northern Ireland has an abundance of basalt rock suitable for mineralisation. Basalt extends into all the Northern Ireland counties except Fermanagh.

Saline Aquifers

Saline aquifers offer a storage site option for the captured CO₂.However, unlike at Corrib, pipelines and infrastructure would need to be installed. Moreover, further studies need to be conducted to ascertain how viable each aquifer is for CO₂storage.

For example, Lough Neagh Basin in Antrim has a 90 Mt storage capacity, although more data still needs to be collected on the subsurface structures, seals and permeability.

Further saline aquifer potential may exist offshore in the Celtic Sea and large but unquantified potential may exist in the Clare, Slyne, Erris, Porcupine and Rockall Basins. Studies point to a total theoretical CO₂ storage capacity of 88.8 Gt in saline aquifers (Lewis et al, 2009).

Advantages of storing CO₂ in sedimentary basins is their large storage capacities (0.1–100 Gt of CO₂per basin) and the available technologies to inject and monitor the stored CO_{2 .}However, this would require large investment for surveying and modelling and continuous maintenance and monitoring to ensure safety.

[Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2023.1207668/full]

Northern Lights Project in Norway

The EU has a Connecting Europe Fund which intends to build a fleet of CO₂ transport ships (Longships) to transport CO₂ from dispersed areas of Europe to a central storage site for CO₂ off the coast of Norway. This initiative is called the Northern Lights Capture and Storage project which is now ready to receive CO₂. The Ervia CO₂ Storage Project Proposal (2022) put forward terminals at Cork and Dublin harbours from where the carbon dioxide could be sent in the Longships to Norway for storage.

The Irish government could use this facility to sequester CO₂. In this case, the DAC parks would be located at the ports to avoid the transport of CO₂ on the island and the CO₂ would be directly fed from the DAC park located adjacent to the port.

Ireland’s Climate Action Plan 2024 Backs Carbon Capture Technology

The Irish government’s new Climate Action Plan 2024 recognises the need to accelerate emissions reduction while also considering carbon capture and storage as a solution. However, current legal restrictions on CO₂ storage and transport present concerns that need addressing. To achieve its net-zero target by 2050, Ireland must tackle these barriers and explore all available technologies, including Direct Air Capture, alongside ongoing renewable energy initiatives.

Ray Naughton, Founder and Managing Director at NEG8 Carbon, said:

“With the right investment and political will, this vision is certainly achievable. Also, this endeavour would position Ireland as a leader in DAC technology, with the ability to export these systems worldwide.”

* Effort Sharing Regulation, Renewable Energy Directive and the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (or “LULUCF”) Regulation.

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